THE NO B.S. UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS |
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Click to view the BLS
numbers this data is based on |
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Question:
IF it has taken 16 months to put between 1.8 and 2.3 million folks back to work THEN how long will it take |
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to put enough folks back to work in order to
get unemployment back down to the March 2007 level of 4.40%?
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Answer
1: At least 60 more months (5 yrs) best case and as much as 100 more months (8 yrs) worst case (see numbers below). |
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Answer
2: PBS NEWSHOUR, March 4, 2011; Lisa Lynch (Heller School
for Social Policy and Management at Brandies University), |
"So,
200,000 jobs a month, if we continue to keep that pace of job creation, to
get back down to, say, the 5 percent unemployment |
rate
we were at before this recession started, that pace of job growth would mean
it would take until 2019 before we got back down |
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to
5 percent."... In other words 8 years. Here is why... |
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(Oct 2009 Baseline) |
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Real (U6) Unemployed |
BLS Employable * |
Real Unemployed Percentage |
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30,960,000 |
154,800,000 |
20.00%+ |
REAL U6 PEAK (per many serious estimates) |
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29,109,200 |
154,800,000 |
18.80% |
CURRENT (if 8.90% U3 vs. 10.10% peek
U3) |
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Fake (U6) Unemployed |
BLS Employable * |
Fake Unemployed Percentage |
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26,940,000 |
154,800,000 |
17.40% |
U6 REPORTED PEEK (via BLS Oct 2009) |
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25,089,200 |
154,800,000 |
16.21% |
U6 assuming ADJUSTED U3 (Feb 2011) |
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24,620,000 |
154,800,000 |
15.90% |
U6 current claimed (via BLS Feb
2011) |
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12,380,000 |
154,800,000 |
8.00% |
U6 claimed (via BLS Mar 2007) |
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1,850,800 |
Found jobs in past 16
months (Oct 2009 to Feb 2011) |
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2,320,000 |
Supposedly found jobs per
BLS in past 16 months (Oct 2009 to Feb 2011) |
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14,560,000 |
Need to find jobs to
match BLS numbers (Mar 2007 ) |
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Fake (U3) Unemployed |
BLS Employable * |
Fake Unemployed Percentage |
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15,628,000 |
154,800,000 * |
10.10% |
U3 REPORTED PEEK (per BLS Oct 2009) * |
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15,480,000 |
154,800,000 |
10.00% |
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15,325,200 |
154,800,000 |
9.90% |
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15,170,400 |
154,800,000 |
9.80% |
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15,015,600 |
154,800,000 |
9.70% |
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14,860,800 |
154,800,000 |
9.60% |
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14,706,000 |
154,800,000 |
9.50% |
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14,551,200 |
154,800,000 |
9.40% |
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14,396,400 |
154,800,000 |
9.30% |
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14,241,600 |
154,800,000 |
9.20% |
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14,086,800 |
154,800,000 |
9.10% |
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13,932,000 |
154,800,000 |
9.00% |
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13,777,200 |
154,800,000 |
8.90% |
U3 CURRENT ADJUSTED (via BLS % Feb 2011) |
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13,673,000 |
153,600,000 |
8.90% |
U3 Current claimed (via BLS % Feb
2011) |
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13,622,400 |
154,800,000 |
8.80% |
Required numbers to draw down real
UE |
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13,467,600 |
154,800,000 |
8.70% |
Required numbers to draw down real
UE |
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6,811,200 |
154,800,000 |
4.40% |
U3 Required numbers to draw down UE
to 4.4% again |
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1,850,800 |
Found jobs in past 16
months (Oct 2009 to Feb 2011) |
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1,955,000 |
Supposedly found jobs per
BLS in past 16 months (Oct 2009 to Feb 2011) |
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8,668,800 |
Need to find jobs to
match BLS numbers (Mar 2007 ) |
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* The BLS Employable number is taken from the BLS data base as they reported for Oct
2009 and |
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is used as a base line assuming only those
folks continued to keep looking for work going forward; |
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not adjusted for population growth due to
immagration, etc. |
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